Estimating the potential willingness of the state to use military force based on the Sugeno fuzzy integral

Estimation of the potential willingness state to use military force is an integral part analysis international relations and preparation key decisions in security sphere. Our problem was develop a method for numerically estimating any force. This should take into account large number quantitative qualitative criteria, uncertainty their relationships, as well initial data, some which can only be obtained with help experts. has shown that known methods have serious shortcomings. We proposed solve this based on representation partial estimations states form fuzzy sets, importance criteria measure. also aggregate using Sugeno integral. developed hierarchical structure estimation determined built observation channel Harrington curve obtain input estimations, aggregation algorithm. As result, we calculated 137 examined The results disclose new aspects fuzzy-integral calculus construct models multi-criteria estimating, demonstrate possibility artificial intelligence numerical sphere relations.